Missouri River Basin Climate Outlook Webinar key points
This page contains links to the PDF of the presentation and a list of the the summary points from the Missouri Basin Climate Outlook webinars for December 2011 to May 2012. Clicking on a webinar month will lead you to the pdf presentation.
Current Conditions:
- Drier than last year
- Warmer than last year
- Less snow in the plains and mountains in most places
- La Nina conditions still exist but may weaken!
Predictions:
- Still calling for better chances of cooler and wetter over much of the mountains
- Backing off the probabilities slightly as compared to the last set of outlooks
Caveat: Most of the snow season yet to go and La Nina impacts typically felt January to March;
The Arctic Oscillation Issue
Current Conditions:
- Less snow than last year in plains and mountains
- Warmer conditions than last year La Nina conditions still exist – different manifestation
Predictions:
- Still calling for better chances of cooler over mountains
- Wetter conditions possible mountains-plains
- Slight backing off the probabilities slightly as compared to the last set of outlooks
- Arctic Oscillation change – La Nina continues
Caveat: Approaching the midpoint of the snow season- still a significant amount of the snow season left.
Current Conditions:
- Little Plains snow and less than average mountain snow pack
- Continuing very warm conditions overall (record)
- La Nina conditions fading
Predictions:
- Increased chances of warmer conditions
- Reduced chance of wetter conditions
- Limited La Nina impact/persisting current conditions
Current Conditions:
- La Nina continues to fade with small impacts
- No snow pack on the plains/frost out
- Mountain snow pack near average
- Warm and dry conditions continue/ fire danger
Predictions:
- Likely warmer conditions (April/spring)
- No indications on precipitation
- Minimal La Nina impact/ El Nino transition?
Current Conditions:
- A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is underway
- No snow pack on the plains / soil frost well out
- Mountain snow pack just below average
- Very warm and relatively dry conditions dominate
- Fire danger and pre-drought conditions continue
Predictions:
- Likely warmer conditions (short term), mixed bag for the rest of spring and summer
- Precipitation mostly equal chances (soil moisture and trend)
- La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions
Current Conditions:
- ENSO neutral (No El Nino/La Nina)
- Mountain snow pack mostly below average
- Warm conditions continue/higher evaporation rates
- Wetter, leading to some flooding in feeding rivers
Predictions:
- Likely warmer south of most of basin
- Precipitation more likely to be low - far Upper basin
- ENSO neutral through the summer - El Nino return fall?
Last Update: Sept. 17, 2012, 2:55 p.m. by Galina Guentchev
